A few more clues on the Australian election results

With the lead-up to the election almost over, and a few weeks to go before voters go to the polls, a few things can be seen from the data we have on the election.

First, while we are not looking at the results for the first preferences at the moment, we do know there is an overall trend in favour of the Coalition.

We also know that this trend is more pronounced for seats that are likely to be heavily Labor-held, which could well include seats that the Coalition won in 2016.

In short, we can say that the Labor vote has gone down and the Coalition has gone up.

This is consistent with the data available.

Second, although we are looking at individual seat results, the trends for the Coalition and the Greens look very similar.

A swing of less than 1% from the Labor party to the Greens in one election is likely to look a lot like a swing of 3% from Labor to the Coalition in the next.

It is possible that the difference between the trends in seats will be even smaller, but it would certainly be significant enough to affect the overall trend.

Third, we have also seen a very large swing in the Liberal vote from the Liberal party to Labor, although that swing has not been as big as in the ALP.

This swing is much smaller than the swing to the Liberals by the Greens, which was about 3.5%.

Fourth, we see that while the ALP has gone from a much larger share of the vote to a much smaller share of seats in the last election, the Greens have not.

This could be a sign of the shift towards the Greens as a third party, which the Greens themselves have been doing.

Fifth, the two biggest swing shifts have occurred in the Northern Territory and Queensland.

In the Northern Australia seat of Mount Isa, the Labor-Greens vote share has been down to just 8.3% from 9.1% in 2016, and in Queensland, the vote share for the Greens has fallen to 7.5% from 8.9%.

In terms of seats that were close in the previous election, there is no evidence of a significant shift towards either party in 2017.

So, for now, the Liberal and the Labor parties are about even in the national vote share.

There are a few other interesting trends, though.

First and most obviously, there are two trends in the two major swing states, South Australia and Victoria.

South Australia is a bit of a bit closer to the centre of the country, and Victoria is a little closer to centre of Australia.

These trends are consistent with what we would expect, given that both states are about evenly divided between Labor and the Liberals.

Second and more important, there has been a huge swing in Labor’s vote share in Tasmania from 10.9% in 2014 to 15.2% in 2017, with a swing from 5.3 percentage points in Tasmania to 7% in South Australia.

This, too, is consistent from previous elections, though it has been much larger than the previous swing in Tasmania.

This suggests that the swing in favour, and the swing away from the Coalition, in Tasmania has moved significantly towards the Liberal Party.

This shift is not the result of a sudden shift towards one party, but more likely a gradual shift away from one party.

Third and last, we are also seeing a significant swing in support for the Labor Party in the South Australian seat of Wollongong, with the swing from 6.2 percentage points to 12.1 percentage points.

This was not as large as in Queensland or Tasmania, but this could be due to the swing of the previous electorate.

The seat, which has a history of strong Labor votes, could be another indicator of a shift towards Labor in the future.

Fourth, the swings in the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria are also similar, though again there is a slight swing towards the Coalition from South Australia to Victoria.

These swings are also consistent with a shift away in the Coalition’s favour, as well as a swing away in Labor, from Tasmania to Victoria, as predicted.

There is also evidence of the change from the seat of Melbourne to Melbourne, as the Liberal-Gillard vote share is lower in Melbourne, which would suggest that the change in the seat is not just a change in Labor voters.

Fifth and last but not least, we also see a swing in vote share by gender in each state.

There was a much bigger swing in Coalition vote share from women to men in Tasmania and from men to women in South Australian, but a much more modest swing in Liberal vote share was seen in the NT and Queensland, where the vote shares of the parties are much closer.

So while the Coalition is not winning the popular vote, it is still a party that is well supported.

It has a good chance of winning the state election, and if Labor can win its own seat, that could have a much greater impact on the final result than the Coalition would have in a hung parliament.